COVID-19 Outcomes - Version 1.0

This is an old version of the ISARIC 4C risk calculator, showing data that was last updated on 21st May 2020.

The ISARIC4C consortium has studied one third of all patients who have been admitted to hospital in the England, Wales and Scotland with COVID-19. However not all people who have been admitted to hospital have completed their admission. Our analysis is a snapshot of what was known for 20,133 people admitted between 6th February and 19th April and have had at least 14 days follow up. This large dataset makes it possible to estimate the outcomes for groups of people admitted to hospital, and how age, sex and some medical conditions affects likely outcomes.

It must be emphasised that most people who get COVID-19 only develop mild symptoms, and will recover at home without needing any medical help. Our calculator predicts outcome for a group of people from the general UK popultion with the features entered. It can not predict any individual person's risk because it does not know all their unique characteristics, and their full medical history.

Measured outcomes for all patients

This plot summarises what happened to patients who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19.

Each circle represents 50 patients. The green circles represent the patients who were discharged from hospital alive, the black-outlined circles represent patients who died in hospital, and the grey circles represent patients who were continuing to receive on-going care in hospital.

Anticipated outcomes for specific patient groups

People who are older, male, or have existing medical problems, are at a higher risk than the general population.

This tool allows you to estimate the risk to a group of people with specific characteristics who have been admitted to hospital with COVID-19. As most people with COVID-19 do not need to go to hospital, the risk to a group of people who have been infected is likely much lower.

This calculator does not simply look at the subset of patients who match the entered criteria, and report the proportion who survived. Instead, it uses a statistical model, specifically, a Cox Proportional Hazard model. The research paper that explains the patient data and analysis is Docherty AB et al. BMJ 2020;369:m1985

This calculator should be considered a tool for illustrating how age and comorbidity influences likley outcome. This calculator must never be used as a predictive tool in practice or to inform individual treatment decisions.

Anticipated Outcome 14 days after admission


What you should do

It is important that everyone follows the Government's advice on Staying alert and safe (social distancing), and on self-isolating if they or someone in their household has symptoms of COVID-19. This is important not only to protect yourself, but also to prevent you from accidentally infecting more vulnerable people.

People who are defined as extremely vulnerable on medical grounds should also follow the government's advice on shielding.

If you think that you might have COVID-19, you should stay at home and consult the NHS Website for advice.